The “Big One” May Hit California Sooner than Expected.

April 22, 2013 – The “Big One” May Hit Southern California Sooner than many Project: The information in the first three paragraphs, below, was gleamed from a research paper published by the Geological Society of America and presented to me by the author of the outstanding “AbreaveHeart1” Blog. The last two paragraphs are mine.

Shown, above, is a Tectonic map of the Pacific–North America plate boundary of the Gulf of California–Salton Sea trough region: The thin black lines are transform (strike-slip) faults; while the red lines are spreading centers in the southern Gulf of California and complex pull-apart basins in the northern Gulf of California and Salton trough. Abbreviations from north to south are: SAF—San Andreas Fault; G—Guaymas spreading center; C—Carmen spreading center; F—Farallon spreading center; P—Pescadero spreading center; A—Alarcón spreading center; T-A F.Z.—Tosco-Abreajos fault zone; EPR—East Pacific Rise. Normally, faults on the Baja California peninsula and islands are young, active and fragile.

The extreme southern end of the San Andreas Fault is more complex than initial measurements postulated. It is composed of spreading divergent faults (the red lines) and a series of transform or strike-slip faults (the black lines). Additionally, the North American Plate is composed of a harder granite material; while the Pacific Plate is more brittle and easily ruptured. Additionally, this area is composed of: (1) A zone of hot weak rock, (2) Rapid plate motion and (3) A complex oblique plate with a major zone of multiple strict-slip faulting.

In summary, the oblique spreading fault lines; from the Salton Sea in California to south of Baja California, Mexico; are moving faster than first hypothesized. Further, both the spreading and strike-slip faults are composed of hot weak rock, which is more susceptible to rupture. Both San Diego and Los Angeles are situated on very porous weak rock that is highly susceptible to rupture and significant structure failure.

Looking at the history of large earthquakes in California does not bode well for the future of this region. Over the last 155 years, California has seen seven earthquakes greater than Magnitude (M) 7.0 as follows: (1) Fort Tejon, 7.9M – 1857, (2) Owens Valley, 7.8M – 1872, (3) Imperial Valley, 7.8M – 1892, (4) San Francisco, 7.7M – 1906, (5) Lompoc, 7.3M – 1927, (6) Kern County, 7.5M – 1952, and (7) Landers, 7.6M – 1992. What jumps out from this list is that the really large quakes were all in the 1800’s and major California earthquakes are on a 22 ½ year cycle; 19 years if you remove the Landers quake. That projects the next powerful California earthquake from between 2013 and 2015 – with a mean year of 2013.

Because the trend line of the magnitudes of the quakes has been decreasing over the last 155 years, I would expect the next major California quake to be 7.8M to 8.2M. There are approximately 30 million people living along or near the coast of California. A simultaneous slip of the entire San Andreas Fault would be an apocalyptic event of unimaginable devastation.

The Master of Disaster

About wfoster2011

Disaster researcher and current financial and economic news and events: Accidents, economics, financial, news, nature, volcanoes, floods, earthquakes, fires; airplane, ship & train wrecks; tornadoes, mine cave-ins, hurricanes, pestilence, blizzards, storms, tzuami's, explosions, pollution, famine; heat & cold waves; nuclear accidents, drought, stampedes and general. Futures trader using high volume and open interest futures markets. Also, a financial, weather and mundane astrologer with over 30 years of experience. Three University degrees from California State University Northridge: BS - Accounting MS - Busines Administration BA - Psychology Served in the U. S. Army as an Armored Platoon Leader in the 5th Battalion, 68th Armored Regiment, 8th Infantry Division (Retired). Have published three books and 36 articles available for sale through my blog: Commodology - Secret of Soyobeans (Financial Astrology) Timing is the Key (Financial Astrology) Scum City, a fiction novel (no longer available, under contract to major publisher) Currently resident of Las Vegas, NV, USA
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5 Responses to The “Big One” May Hit California Sooner than Expected.

  1. Jacquelyn Fedyk says:

    I wonder what astrological events will be happening before, during and/or after March 18, 2013 at 4:18PM PST (rush hour traffic)

  2. GM says:

    What about the 7.2 magnitude earthquake that we had in the Imperial Valley on April 2010? Why is it not listed here?

    • wfoster2011 says:

      Technically it was in Mexico, however, I believe it should have been included along with the several others along the San Andreas Fault, e.g., Oct. 16, 1999 – 7.2M, 29 Palms; Jun 15, 2005 7.2 – Northwest coast of CA; and Apr. 4, 2010 – 7.2 – Baja California, Mexico (near Imperial Valley, CA). I did a post on all of these earthquakes along the San Andreas and Juan de Fuca plates in the past (search earthquakes) but I should have included it. I’ll do a post in the future on west coast U.S. earthquakes >= 7.0M in the future. It should make for an interesting study. The Juan de Fuca plate is in the most danger of a major quake.
      Bill Foster
      aka: The Master of Disaster

  3. --Rick says:

    Given sooner or later; my money is on sooner.

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