July 3, 2012 – July 2012 Earthquake Quantity and Power Forecast:
The graphs, above, reflect actual global earthquakes over the last 39 years. For example, the 14 on the top quantity forecast graph means that their where a total of 14 earthquakes on July 1st; from 1973 to 2011. The total of all the days equals 415, which if divided by 39 years, equals 10.6. Therefore, this graph forecasts 11 quakes >= to 6.0 magnitude for July 2012.
The bottom graph is the same as the top graph, only it totals the Power 10X rating. The USGS uses two strength ratings for earthquake: (1) A seismograph exponential 10X rating and (2) A 32X strength rating. The 10X rating means that an 8.0 magnitude earthquake is ten times stronger than a 7.0 and 100 times (10 X 10 = 100) stronger than a 6.0 magnitude tremor. The 32X rating measures the overall strength of the earthquake and is really the more important figure. I have this information for July, however, if I graph it; it makes the smaller numbers harder to see. For example, the 182 Power 10X rating on July 15th would be a 32X Strength rating of 1,424; which would tend to obscure lower numbered days.
Comparing the two graphs reveals some interesting information. For example, July 15th had a total quantity of 13 quakes (top graph), however, the Power 10X rating for those 13 quakes was 182 (bottom graph). As noted above, the Strength 32X rating for that day was 1,424.
For the month of July 2012, the time around July 17th to the 21st looks particularly stressful; and I would expect some very significant earthquakes during that period. (Credits: Data – USGS, Graphs and Narrative – W. G. Foster).
The Master of Disaster