April, 2012 Earthquake Quantity Forecast.

April 3, 2012 – April quake forecast based on 39 years of actuals: I downloaded 5,311 global earthquakes from January 1, 1973 to December 31, 2011; greater than or equal to 6.0 magnitude, and summarized them by calendar month. The results for the month of April are shown above. For example, April 1st had a total of 21 quakes that occurred that day, over the 39 year period of the study. The high for the month was 26 on April 21st, with the low on April 15th at seven.
During the 39 years of earthquake history we had 5,311 quakes or about 0.37 per day, i.e. about one-third of an earthquake every day. Therefore, for any day in the month of April we would expect 14.43 earthquakes (0.37 X 39 = 14.43). Consequently days with greater than 14 quakes should see more earthquakes than days with less. This did not work out for April 1st when we exceeded the mean, or April 2nd when we were under the mean (average). However, April 21st is almost twice the mean and I would expect to see one or more quakes on that day.
This forecast chart presumes that history will repeat itself and the day of the month some how forecasts earthquakes. The only space object that is in the exact same place in the zodiac each year is the Sun (plus or minus one degree of longitude). In my research this is a contributing factor but is far from the the total predictive model I am seeking. Looking at the results of these same type of graphs for January and February 2012, I find that their is some credence to these forecast charts, however it is a very lose one and can NOT be totally relied on. However, I wanted to test the premise that the position of the Sun forecasts earthquakes and will continue to track forecast to actuals for the remainder of calendar year 2012.
So far for April 2012 we have had one earthquake on April 2nd. That was the 6.3 magnitude tremor that occurred yesterday near Oaxaca, Mexico; which was really an after shock of the 7.4 magnitude tremor occurring in the same region on March 20, 2012.
Much additional work needs to be performed in the field of earthquake forecasting until an accurate model may be developed.
The Master of Disaster