December 29, 2011 – Earthquakes and “Moon Wobble:” The internet is full of claims that “Moon Wobble” causes all kinds of man-made and natural disasters. Moon Wobble occurs when the Sun is aligned (conjunct or zero degrees) with, opposite (180 degrees) to or at right angles (90 degrees) to the North Node of the Moon. The Moon’s Nodes are not actual solid objects in an astronomical sense, but rather sensitive points on the Ecliptic, where the orbit of the Moon crosses the pathway of the Sun. The Ecliptic is the apparent path of the Sun through the sky.
My point here is that it’s easy to say that something, e.g., Moon Wobble or Eclipses; cause disasters by looking at a few cases because there are always disasters occurring around the globe on a daily basis. However, to substantiate a cause and effect relationship; one needs a large sample size. The larger the sample size, say 100 or 1,000; the greater are the odds that there is a significant relationship between Cause A and Event B.
In an effort to test the Moon Wobble theory of disasters, I downloaded 5,310 global earthquakes (EQs), greater than or equal to 6.0 magnitude, from 1973 to 2011. I then created an Excel file containing 14,240 lines. Each line was one day and included the day, month, year, earthquake quantity (or zero if their where no EQs that day), the sum of the magnitudes of those EQs, the sum of the power on a ten based exponential scale and the strength of those EQs on a 32 exponential scale. In other words, I created a sample of 5,310. Further, I downloaded the dates of Moon Wobble; in terms of the day, month, year and time. Therefore, Cause A were the Moon Wobble dates and Event B were the earthquake dates. From that data, I created a number of charts and graphs showing the quantified relationship between Moon Wobble and Earthquakes. The summary quantity graph is shown above.
The Y Axis, the number in red on the left of the graph, reflects the number of earthquakes that occurred. The X Axis, the gold numbers at the bottom, shows 10 days before the Moon Wobble, the exact day of Moon Wobble, and 10 days after the event. For example, the blue line peak at 29 (between the 0 and -2) is day -1 or one day after the conjunction of the Sun with the North Node of the Moon. The red line low of 7 on day -1 says that when the Sun was 180 degrees from the North Node, EQs where low. The light green “Wax 90” line was when the Moon was at a 90 degree angle to the North Node, while the “Wan 90” purple line was when the Moon was forming a 270 degree angle to the North Node.
The only point on the graph that was adjusted from actual accumulated numbers was the light green line at -8 (eight days after the exact Wobble event). This point was originally 55 EQs because of the March 11, 2011 Japan mega-quake. I reduced it to 29 to make the summary lines more visible.
IF Moon Wobble had a strong effect on global EQs, then the graph would show a pronounced peak on day zero with steep “mountain sides” on either side of day zero. Clearly, that is not the case.
In summary, linear and exponential regression lines through the data show that there are more EQs after the exact day of Moon Wobble, for all four types (0, 180, Wx90 or Wn90). However, Moon Wobble is NOT a significant cause of disasters in term of earthquakes.
The Master of Disaster